Accounting for Ocean Impacts Nearly Doubles Social Cost of Carbon

Mar 1, 2026, 2:51 AM
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Recent research from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography has highlighted a significant oversight in climate economic assessments—the exclusion of ocean-related damages. By integrating these impacts into the social cost of carbon (SCC), the study found that the economic harm caused by carbon emissions nearly doubles, representing a crucial advancement in climate policy evaluation.
Traditionally, the SCC estimates the economic damage associated with each additional ton of CO₂ emitted. This metric has been vital for informing climate policy, carbon pricing, and cost-benefit analyses globally. However, ocean impacts have largely been absent from this calculation, leading to an underestimation of the true costs of climate change.
The study introduces the concept of the "blue" social cost of carbon, which incorporates the economic damages inflicted on marine ecosystems and ocean-dependent infrastructure. This new framework assigns monetary values to the previously overlooked effects of climate change on coral reefs, mangroves, fisheries, and coastal communities.

Significant Findings from the Study

Researchers determined that without accounting for ocean impacts, the SCC stands at approximately $51 per ton of CO₂. However, including ocean-related damages raises this figure to around $97.2 per ton, marking a staggering 91% increase. This adjustment underscores the ocean's critical role in global economies, particularly for nations reliant on marine resources for food and trade.
The financial implications of this research are profound. For instance, with global CO₂ emissions projected to reach 41.6 billion tons in 2024, the added ocean-related damages could amount to nearly $2 trillion annually—costs that traditional assessments have overlooked.

The Ocean's Role and Economic Impacts

The ocean plays an essential part in supporting a variety of economic and social benefits, including food supply, trade, and cultural value. However, these roles have been insufficiently factored into climate-economy models. The researchers categorized the damages into market impacts, such as reduced fisheries revenue and disrupted shipping, along with non-market values like nutritional health and recreational opportunities.
Notably, health impacts linked to fisheries account for a significant portion of the ocean-related climate damages. In many countries, particularly lower-income and island states, fish are a vital source of protein and micronutrients. Declines in fish stocks due to climate change can lead to higher mortality rates and adverse health outcomes, which are often invisible in traditional economic assessments.

Addressing Inequalities and Future Policy Directions

The study also highlights the unequal distribution of ocean-related damages, with small island nations and economies that depend heavily on marine resources facing the most significant welfare losses. These regions often contribute little to climate change yet bear a disproportionately large burden of its impacts.
The research emphasizes that the SCC is a critical tool for policymakers and businesses in evaluating the costs of greenhouse gas emissions. By incorporating ocean damages into these assessments, authorities can develop more effective and equitable climate strategies, addressing the urgent need for comprehensive environmental policies.
As environmental economist Bernardo Bastien-Olvera stated, "If we don't put a price tag on the harm that climate change causes to the ocean, it will be invisible to key decision makers." The integration of ocean impacts into the social cost of carbon represents a vital step toward recognizing the full economic consequences of climate change and ensuring that marine ecosystems are valued in policy discussions.
In conclusion, this groundbreaking study not only reveals the critical economic losses linked to ocean damage but also paves the way for more informed climate action that acknowledges the interconnectedness of land and marine ecosystems. The findings urge a reevaluation of current climate policies to include the ocean's value, ultimately supporting a more sustainable future for both marine environments and human societies.

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