New Study Nearly Doubles Social Cost of Carbon by Including Ocean Impacts

Jan 26, 2026, 2:56 AM

Climate Change Economy Research Innovation

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A recent study from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego has made a significant advancement in climate economics by incorporating ocean damage into the social cost of carbon for the first time. This new assessment nearly doubles the estimated economic impact of carbon dioxide emissions, raising the cost from $51 to $97.2 per ton, a staggering 91% increase.

The researchers calculated that the inclusion of ocean damage adds an additional $46.2 per ton of carbon dioxide. With global emissions projected to reach approximately 41.6 billion tons in 2024, this translates to nearly $2 trillion in ocean-related damages annually, a figure that has been absent from traditional climate cost estimates.

Historically, the economic harm caused by climate change has largely focused on terrestrial impacts, effectively assigning a value of zero to the ocean. However, the new findings emphasize that ocean degradation—resulting from climate-driven temperature increases, altered chemistry, and severe weather—has profound implications for both ecosystems and human societies.

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, reveals that the ocean's losses are not just environmental issues but integral to the economic narrative surrounding climate change. It highlights the importance of recognizing how climate change impacts coral reefs, fisheries, and coastal infrastructure, which have long been overlooked in economic models.

Environmental economist Bernardo Bastien-Olvera, who led the study, stated, "If we don't put a price tag on the harm that climate change causes to the ocean, it will be invisible to key decision-makers." The research aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis that informs policy, emphasizing the ocean's critical role in climate impact assessments.

The new social cost of carbon now accounts for both market and non-market values. Market losses include decreased fisheries revenues and reduced trade, while non-market values consider health impacts due to diminished nutrition from affected fisheries and the recreational benefits provided by healthy marine ecosystems.

The researchers also factored in what they describe as "non-use" or existence values, reflecting the inherent worth people place on thriving ecosystems, even if they do not directly use them. These additional considerations reveal that the losses in marine biodiversity and ecosystem services carry significant emotional and cultural significance, which traditional economic calculations fail to capture.

As a result of these comprehensive evaluations, the study predicts that damages from ocean impacts will lead to annual losses of $1.66 trillion in traditional market values alone by the year 2100. This projection highlights the urgent need for nations to reassess their climate policies, particularly in how they account for ocean health and its economic contributions.

The findings also indicate that island economies and small coastal communities will bear the brunt of these impacts, as they rely heavily on marine resources for nutrition and economic stability. "The countries that have the most responsibility for causing climate change and the most capacity to fix it are not generally the same countries that will experience the largest or most near-term damages," noted co-author Kate Ricke.

The introduction of the "blue" social cost of carbon represents a transformative shift in climate economics, with potential implications for policy-making and investment in ocean conservation initiatives. The study's authors hope that this newfound recognition of ocean impacts will lead to greater investment in adaptation and resilience for marine ecosystems.

By integrating ocean damages into the social cost of carbon, this research not only highlights the economic consequences of climate change but also underscores the need for a holistic approach to climate policy that values both terrestrial and marine ecosystems equally.

In conclusion, the nearly doubling of the social cost of carbon due to ocean impacts marks a pivotal moment in the understanding of climate economics, emphasizing the urgency of addressing marine health in climate change discussions and policy formulations.

Ocean Impacts Nearly Double the Social Cost of Carbon, Study Reveals

A new study from Scripps Institution of Oceanography reveals that accounting for ocean-related damages nearly doubles the social cost of carbon, raising it from $51 to $97.2 per ton of CO2. The findings highlight the urgent need to integrate marine ecosystem impacts into climate policy and economic assessments.

Incorporating Ocean Impacts Nearly Doubles Social Cost of Carbon

A groundbreaking study reveals that accounting for ocean damage in climate economic models nearly doubles the social cost of carbon emissions from $51 to $97.2 per ton. This increase highlights the significant economic damages caused by climate change on marine ecosystems, emphasizing the need for revised climate policies.

Ocean Impacts Nearly Double Social Cost of Carbon

A new study reveals that including ocean damage in the social cost of carbon nearly doubles its economic impact, raising the cost from $51 to $97.2 per ton of CO2. This significant increase highlights the urgent need to account for marine ecosystem degradation in climate policy.

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