Trump's Oil Investment Claims in Venezuela Meet Expert Skepticism

Jan 7, 2026, 2:38 AM

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President Donald Trump has made bold claims regarding the potential for US oil companies to invest billions in Venezuela's oil production following the ousting of President Nicolás Maduro. He stated that major US oil firms would "go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, and start making money for the country". However, industry experts are expressing doubts about the feasibility of such investments.

Experts argue that without an "iron-clad guarantee" from the US federal government to reimburse companies for their investments, oil firms are likely to proceed with caution. Trump's optimistic timeline suggests that US companies could have operations "up and running" in Venezuela within 18 months, but analysts believe this may be overly ambitious. Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, indicated that it could take up to three years for any significant production increase, estimating a potential rise of around half a million barrels per day by 2029.

The skepticism is rooted in several factors. First, the high upfront costs associated with rebuilding Venezuela's oil infrastructure are daunting. Estimates suggest that restoring production to levels seen in the early 2010s could require between $80 billion and $90 billion over six to seven years. Additionally, the current low oil prices further complicate the business case for investment, as companies may be hesitant to commit large sums in a volatile market.

Political instability in Venezuela remains a significant concern for potential investors. The US oil industry has a long history in Venezuela, but many companies, including ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, exited the market after the nationalization of the oil sector under Hugo Chávez and Maduro. Chevron is currently the only major US oil company still operating in the country, and even it has been cautious about expanding its operations without clear assurances from the US government.

Experts also highlight the need for a stable legal and regulatory framework in Venezuela to attract foreign investment. The lack of clarity regarding the future governance of the country raises questions about the security of investments. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted that oil companies are unlikely to invest significantly until there is more certainty about the Venezuelan regime's stability.

While Trump has suggested that US oil companies are ready to invest, the reality is more complex. The American Petroleum Institute, the leading trade association for the oil industry, stated that investment decisions are typically based on stability, the rule of law, and long-term operational considerations. A spokesperson for ConocoPhillips echoed this sentiment, indicating that it would be "premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments" in Venezuela.

In summary, while Trump's assertions about US investment in Venezuelan oil production may resonate politically, the practicalities of such investments are fraught with challenges. Industry experts emphasize the need for guarantees from the US government, a stable political environment, and a clear regulatory framework before any significant investment can occur. Until these issues are addressed, skepticism about the feasibility of Trump's claims is likely to persist.

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