Rising Heat from Climate Change Threatens Global Coffee Supply

Feb 23, 2026, 2:49 AM
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Coffee, a beloved beverage consumed by billions globally, is increasingly jeopardized by climate change as rising temperatures stress coffee-growing regions. A recent analysis by Climate Central indicates that from 2021 to 2025, climate change added significant heat to these areas, particularly impacting the quality and quantity of coffee harvests.
The report highlights that coffee-producing countries, responsible for approximately 97% of global coffee production, experienced an average of 47 extra days of harmful heat each year due to climate change. This excessive heat, defined as exceeding 30°C (86°F), is particularly detrimental to arabica coffee plants, which comprise around 60-70% of the global supply. The top five coffee-producing countries—Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—saw an average increase of 57 additional days of heat stress annually, contributing to rising coffee prices and threatening the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers who depend on this crop.
Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, faced about 70 additional days of coffee-harming heat each year due to climate change. Minas Gerais, Brazil's top coffee-growing state, recorded similar increases, indicating a troubling trend for one of the world's most important coffee regions. Meanwhile, Indonesia, which produces approximately 6% of global coffee, is projected to experience an average of 129 days of extreme heat by 2025, further straining its coffee supply chain.
The volatility in coffee prices has been alarming in recent years, with prices surging dramatically. For instance, coffee prices increased from around $2.63 per kilogram in 2023 to nearly $4.86 per kilogram in 2025, resulting in a price rise of approximately 46% globally. This spike is not merely a result of market fluctuations; it is intricately linked to the ongoing climate crisis. As extreme heat damages coffee plants and reduces yields, these factors combine to diminish supply and elevate prices, impacting consumers worldwide.
Climate Central's findings emphasize that the adverse effects of climate change extend beyond just temperature increases. Erratic rainfall and heightened pest pressures also threaten coffee production. The analysis indicates that farmers across the 25 countries studied are increasingly facing challenges such as declining bean quality and productivity, and heightened vulnerability to diseases like coffee leaf rust, which has historically devastated coffee crops in regions like Latin America.
In Ethiopia, the birthplace of coffee, over 4 million households rely on coffee as their primary source of income. However, farmers there are already witnessing the detrimental effects of extreme heat on their crops. Dejene Dadi, general manager of the Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union, stated that urgent action is needed from governments to support smallholder farmers in adapting to climate change impacts, as they are among the most vulnerable to these changes.
With projections suggesting that suitable land for coffee cultivation could shrink by up to 50% by 2050 without adequate adaptation efforts, the need for sustainable practices has never been more critical. Experts advocate for agroforestry systems that involve planting coffee under the canopy of other trees. This method not only protects coffee plants from direct sunlight but also contributes positively to biodiversity and soil health.
As coffee prices reflect the fragility of the global food system amid rising temperatures, a comprehensive approach involving policy support, sustainable agricultural practices, and climate finance is essential for safeguarding coffee production and the livelihoods of millions of farmers worldwide.
In conclusion, the intersection of climate change and coffee production underscores a pressing need for immediate action. As temperatures continue to rise, the coffee industry must adapt to ensure the sustainability of this vital global commodity, protecting both farmers and consumers alike from the impacts of an increasingly warming world.

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